Two Thousand iPhone Apps Coming?
Apple states that over 100,000 downloads of the iSDK have taken place.
This causes me to bring up the Two-Per Cent Response Rate Rule of direct mail campaigns, which I previously mentioned in regard to Trent Reznor.
When there were no home computers and things were done via mail order, I read up on direct marketing (what we usually called back then junk mail). A phenomenal response rate was considered 3%. That’s right: three percent! For a very successful campaign.
Find that hard to believe?
What are the average response rates to direct mail campaigns quoted as at the moment?
Is there anything specific to the test and measurement industry?
My industry is Office Products, and 99% of our bsuiness comes from direct mail marketing.
We see a 1% response rate when mailing to Prospects or inactive customers.
It’s closer to 2% when we mail a ‘special offer’ to existing customers. (like a big sale on a specific products line).
In that same thread, here’s someone who got the same Old School education I had:
I’ve been told that a good rule-of-thumb is that 2-3% response rate signifies a successful campaign.
Emphasis added by me.
So, if the Two-Per Cent Response Rate Rule is applied to the iSDK number of downloads, it could mean Apple will be flooded with two thousand applications right from the start.
And that’s if the two per cent create only one program each.
How many applications can Apple approve per day?
Even if it manages ten per day, it’d take two hundred days to clear the backlog.
Since this doesn’t include more coming in every day, the task clearly becomes Sisyphean in scope.
Let’s say Apple has a Top Secret method of dispatching a hundred programs per day. That’s still a twenty-day lag to clear just the introductory two thousand.
I’m not even going to try to break down the possible two thousand into categories of applications. How many will be productivity, how many fun, how many business niche. Nor will I even attempt to parse paid from free.
All of this makes me wonder if we’ll see iDevs having to set up websites to pre-market their programs while awaiting Apple’s approval and appearance on the App Store.
Many of us might find ourselves signing up on mailing lists waiting to be told when we can buy something.
It also makes me wonder how Apple is going to handle announcing new App Store offerings. I don’t do RSS, so will Apple itself offer a mailing list so I can get updates? Or will I be stuck having to keep iTunes open everyday?
(Update: No, I will have to get an iPhone or iPod Touch, so I can keep abreast of what’s added to the App Store directly that way. It makes it hell for people without the hardware, though.) (See new Update.)
This is really uncharted territory, I think. When the Palm Pilot appeared, the Net was still young and it was easy to keep up on new programs. Until the flood began.
This time, we might start with a flood.